Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 0.033893 0.038651 0.043871 0.050027 0.057095 0.064966 0.074408
2025-01-05 0.025363 0.031510 0.038878 0.048384 0.060359 0.074990 0.094294
2025-01-12 0.020999 0.027621 0.036043 0.047586 0.063071 0.083229 0.111632
2025-01-19 0.017562 0.024183 0.033017 0.045734 0.063688 0.088305 0.124917
2025-01-26 0.016116 0.023109 0.032841 0.047474 0.069101 0.100165 0.148675
2025-02-02 0.014941 0.022212 0.032718 0.049146 0.074443 0.112342 0.174202
2025-02-09 0.013953 0.021435 0.032624 0.050757 0.079753 0.124908 0.201697
2025-02-16 0.012662 0.020034 0.031404 0.050435 0.081927 0.132725 0.222400
2025-02-23 0.011690 0.019014 0.030644 0.050710 0.085005 0.142201 0.246828
2025-03-02 0.010661 0.017786 0.029410 0.050036 0.086363 0.148858 0.267040
2025-03-09 0.010065 0.017214 0.029183 0.051016 0.090615 0.160851 0.298093
2025-03-16 0.009278 0.016233 0.028161 0.050480 0.092075 0.167971 0.320866
2025-03-23 0.008898 0.015947 0.028347 0.052181 0.097898 0.183866 0.362780
2025-03-30 0.008047 0.014736 0.026774 0.050476 0.097143 0.187318 0.380613
2025-04-06 0.007413 0.013861 0.025725 0.049642 0.097941 0.193790 0.405282
2025-04-13 0.006705 0.012782 0.024193 0.047705 0.096321 0.195224 0.419439
2025-04-20 0.006520 0.012690 0.024535 0.049525 0.102535 0.213320 0.471990
2025-04-27 0.006337 0.012582 0.024832 0.051272 0.108769 0.232124 0.528546
2025-05-04 0.006156 0.012462 0.025089 0.052956 0.115035 0.251666 0.589347
2025-05-11 0.005785 0.011921 0.024436 0.052620 0.116802 0.261396 0.628077
2025-05-18 0.005504 0.011540 0.024085 0.052907 0.119996 0.274699 0.677256
2025-05-25 0.005157 0.010990 0.023325 0.052203 0.120819 0.282549 0.713745
2025-06-01 0.004982 0.010799 0.023324 0.053228 0.125826 0.300915 0.779795